Bleak oil and ovens
Lately I am bothering myself thinking about two ideas – one is called “peak oil,” the other concerns microwave ovens and firewood.
When you’re down, it’s down, and when it’s up, you’re up.
I’ve yet to read or hear an explanation of peak oil I can understand or believe. Like you perhaps, I’ve heard that demand is or will outrun supply, and then all kinds of bad things will happen because everything that is made from, heated with, or transported using – almost everything – will cost more and more, when you can get it.
I think a reason there is no easy simple explanation is – too many variables. But knock those variables down to and follow the trail. Just look at prices and demand.
Price went up recently (2008, for who knows what reason), and eventually consumption went down. Consumption down, price went down, price goes down, consumption can go up, consumption goes up…and so on.
A sea-saw. Simple on paper, but painful for real non-paper people, especially after a few cycles.
It’s not just consumption that goes down. Over time, it’s the economy as well. Because as oil supplies peak, it’s not just petroleum that goes up (and down), it’s everything. And as production decreases, people lose jobs. But then the economy recovers. But when oil supplies are only just sufficient, economies eventually don’t completely recover. Then this cycle happens - for one cycle, then another, and another.
The economy rocks back and forth, but likely not rocking back to the exact starting place, but slowly, perhaps, downward. Spirling down economy.
Is it better to buy and use a microwave oven or burn wood in a stove?
Energy and environmental impact of manufacturing and recycling. What is the lifespan of each oven? What materials are lost in recycling? What are the social, environmental, and economic consequences of replacing materials in remanufacturing?
Source of energy for heat. Is the electricity for the microwave coming from solar, gas, coal, oil, nuclear fuel? Is the wood source forest floor, preconsumer waste, forest farmed, regulated or unregulated tree cuts?
Efficiency of use – how many things can be cooked with a given amount of energy. Included in this are the number of people serviced at a given time. For example, if the wood burning stove is fired up just to heat a cup of coffee, most of the fuel will be wasted. But if a given amount of wood is used to cook for many people, until it is exhausted, the efficiency is much greater.
As we spiral down, which oven will you want?
This is to be continued – week of April 26, 2010.
